CES 2011 wrapup

A great show this year. I ran out of time before I ran out of show, I
don't remember the last time that happened. My big regret is that I
didn't make it to Sony (where I can easily spend half a day). This
year it was fun to observe the race to market of 3DTVs, tablets, and
smart TVs.

The technology for smart TVs (plain old internet connectivity) has
been around for years - nothing new there, at the hardware level - but
what has been missing is a model for interacting with devices in a fun
and simple way, which is what Steve Jobs has shown us. For example, Panasonic has been showing internet connected TVs for years but its never been really compelling and never gotten off the ground. So Add to that revolution in man-machine interface,
app software development that is several orders of magnitude faster
and cheaper than the Microsoft model, enabling an incredibly rich
array of apps to be essentially crowd-sourced in days or weeks rather
than years. And this paradigm of dead-simple user interfaces is going
to work incredibly well in all kinds of devices - beyond fridges and
printers and tvs and cars to, well, I'm guessing everything.

Given that, it seems inevitable that many different app/OS niches will
need to co-exist. It won't be a matter of wanting to run Angry Birds
on your fridge. (Remember a few years ago, the killer app was
slideshowing photos off an SD card! That was all the CE industry could
think of to do with a big LCD screen! There are still fridges made
today that have that feature!)

It all comes down to the problems that have to be solved.
Kitchen appliances need apps to solve the problems of minimizing
energy cost, and simplifying service calls.
Cars need apps to solve the problems of navigation and handsfree
operation, etc.
Fridges need apps to solve problems of keeping pantries stocked.
Printers need apps to connect directly to devices and enable
ubiquitous printing.
Etc.

I don't think app developers are a fixed resource we OEMs have to
fight over. I think multiple armies of app developers will naturally
rise up to specialize in one or more applications and environments. It
does mean that OEMs will need to hold their app developers, and
customers, closer.

Remember 5 years ago at CES when Microsoft showed the House of the
Future - and it was basically 14" screens on every wall with a big
empty Windows desktop with a Start button in the lower left corner?
Ugh.
Apple has created a completely new vision of how we might interact
with electronic devices, and has proven the business model can work.

So don't forget to sign up for CES 2012, my prediction is it'll be the
year that *everything* gets connected to the internet. In a truly
meaningful way.
.

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